1.5-2% Housing Growth in Russia According to Khusnullin is Not Enough — How to Meet the "May Decrees" Targets So That Russians Can Actually Have Their Own Apartments and Houses
Today, Deputy Prime Minister Marat Khusnullin stated that to achieve the results of Vladimir Putin's "May Decrees," it is necessary to increase housing input by 1.5-2% annually over the next six years and that 90% of the planned result has already been achieved. According to the decrees, it is necessary to provide citizens with housing totaling at least 33 m² per person by 2030 and at least 38 m² by 2036. In reality, as calculated by Readovka, this is insufficient. Achieving these targets is possible in two scenarios. The first scenario suggests that annually from 2024-2030, 127 million m² of housing will be put into operation (15.3% higher than the 2023 level), and 123.3 million m² from 2031-2036 (12% higher than 2023), while completely abandoning the demolition of emergency buildings.
The second scenario: 133.7 million m² from 2023-2030 (21.4% higher than the 2023 level), and 130 million m² from 2031-2036 (18.1% higher than last year's level) with the elimination of emergency buildings. By 2030, Russia will already have 40 million m² of emergency housing, and currently, 400 million m² require major repairs, which in reality, no one is dealing with because the funds collected are insufficient. However, even this will still not be enough.
The main problem is not the lack of housing but the inability of citizens to afford it. In 2023, the volume of unsold apartments in new buildings reached 71.1 million m², a record since January 2020. This does not lead to lower prices as project costs are constantly rising, suggesting a medium-term freeze.
Currently, the price decline is insignificant: new buildings in Moscow have decreased by only 0.2%, secondary housing by no more than 1%, and only in 14 cities. Meanwhile, preferential mortgages have heated the market. Over three years, this has led to a doubling of prices. The maternity capital is enough for only 5.8 m² in the regions, while in Moscow, one can afford "a whole" 2 m².